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The past 2 weeks really have just been the Democrats doubling down and saying the quiet part out loud.
(i.redd.it)
Yes, it's a PCM meme, but still accurate as fuck.
this post was submitted on 20 Nov 2024
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Is it a likely progression? And how long do you believe it will take? Also, I'm curious what you are basing your hope on and what the you believe the knock-on effects will be. It would be good to know if something similar happened in the US or another country in order to compare.
I'm not an psychic, but I'd imagine the more we deport, the more wages will go up. Hopefully in 4 years, we'll be in a much better place.
The biggest side effect would be higher rates for fruit/veggies and for landscaping. But I'd pay extra for fruit I know is grown ethically. I already do, as much as I try.
Setting aside all the other issues, if you think creating a worker shortage (which might increase wages short term) will do anything good for your economy: it won't.
Historically economic growth is pretty closely tied to population growth. More hands create more value. Removing hands will make the remaining hands more valuable but there is still less value created. And the people that hold economic power aren't going to give up their share easily, so one way or another it will eventually mean even less for the workers.
There was population growth in the late 1800s, it wasn't until the population got paid more that the economy took off.
While that's true, the capitalists where getting richer and richer even before the big economic growth. They don't really care. Also, the wage increases had to be hard fought for by a united working class. I don't see american workers unite right now to fight the rich.
Without exploitable labor employers will have to pay employees more. Workers won't have to fight, they can do nothing and wages will still increase.
They can move production to places with available labour. You know for example the places you deported all that labour to.
Which is where the tariffs come in. Helps balance everything out.
By making the products more expensive while your wages stagnate? How's that balancing anything out?
Why will wages stagnante?
A rising tide raises all boats or in this case wages.
Not if the work follows the workers outside of the US
You must have missed the reply two comments up.
https://lemm.ee/post/47845390/16367562
You must have missed my response to that
https://lemm.ee/post/47845390/16368689
I read your non-response, which is why I asked how wages will stagnate to your response to tarrifs.
The argument was that wages rise if labour is scarce. My counter is that labour will just be moved outside with the people, thus countering the scarcity, thus making wages stagnate rather than increase.
Somehow tariffs are supposed to balance this out. Which is really the nonsense in all of this.
So you have no rebuttal to tarrifs stopping companies from moving manufacturing outside the US.
Yes, to some extend they can achieve that, if they are high enough to cancel out the wage differences.
But they have a lot of additional effects. Companies with small margins that import ressources will have to raise prices to stay profitable, others will do it because they can riding the wave of those that must. All in all tarrifs just raise prices.
Thus the nominally raised wages stagnate in buying power.
So either the wages stagnate without the tarrifs because the work follows the cheap labour or they stagnate because tarrifs raise the prices alongside with the rising wages. The tarrifs achieve nothing for the buying power of consumers.
You don't have to completely offset wages with tarrifs just make the ROI on moving take 10 years.
The steal tarrifs Trump used led to increased production in the US while Europe production stayed the same. Tarrifs do not have to hurt buying power.
Based on your arguments I assume you're against minimum wage too.
That wouldn't be accurate. I am for global taxes and minimum wages to stop the whole "we'll just move the company elsewhere" bullshit all together
Yes, the buying power of consumers will take a hit from tariffs.
At first. But many of those consumers will benefit from increased wages.
Creating an under class of people doesn't help. Look at the South vs the North. The south had slaves, the north largely did not. The north has much more industry.
I think it's a reasonable assumption, but the reason I was asking for the basis for that hope is because I was hoping you had done some research and found some data to base that assumption on. It could have been a solid basis for it. In the UK, where Brexit was touted to achieve the same goal, the wages did go up (not a very good source, but well) however they ended up asking for the pickers, truck drivers, and handiworkers to return (EuroNews 2021, BBC 2023, Le Monde).
If you were to take a look at Germany (3rd biggest economy in the world), it struggles to get workers for elderly care and instead of increasing wages to attract more people, they are instead making easier to hire abroad e.g India.
I agree that the cost of food and landscaping will go up, which could be troubling for some who hoped for the opposite. Given how wages have not risen at the same rate as inflation, it is difficult to share your hope for increased wages - be it for the pickers and landscapers or the people paying for the produce and services. But, I may be wrong, I'm not a psychic either.
I do commend you for willing to pay more for ethically grown (and harvested) fruit. Whether your fellow countrymen and women are is yet to be seen.
In conclusion, my fear is that while there might be mass deportations and a real chance of wages going up, IMO the most likely outcomes are
Whether those are all good, whether they happen together or separately, I don't know, but my hopes aren't very high that the total outcome will be positive.
Good luck though.