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this post was submitted on 23 Sep 2024
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Problem: She's not, she's really really not. The EC race, you know, the only one that actually COUNTS, looks like it will be a squeaker.
She is ahead in the polls by a narrow margin in enough states to carry the electoral college. It's still way too close, and we can't take anything for granted. But the best available data says that if the election were held today, the odds of Harris winning are at least better than a coin toss.
Last I saw, she hit EXACTLY 270 which is as narrow as it gets.
As of right now, 270 to win's polling averages put Harris ahead of Trump in NV, PA, and WI by 1.6, 1.7, and 2.1 respectively. Those leads are small, but larger than Trump's leads in NC or AZ which are at 0.8 and 1.0, and in a similar ballpark to GA's 2.0 Trump lead.
In MI, Harris has a lead of 4.2, which is better than Trump's 4.0 lead in IA and just behind his 4.3 lead in FL
Still too close, especially given how unreliable polls can be, but it's what we have to work with.